Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
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Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
Caros confrades
Começa a tornar-se evidente que a população humana poderá reduzir-se consideravelmente durante o século XXI, devido aos efeitos do progressivo esgotamento dos combustíveis fósseis (a que se pode chamar Apocalypsis petrolearia, citando Brennus Regan), com consequências económicas muito graves para a humanidade (os efeitos já são perceptíveis actualmente, com a subida do preço do petróleo para um valor próximo dos 50 dólares por barril).
Aos confrades interessados, recomenda-se a consulta dos sítios relacionados com oil depletion (defecto petrolei, em versão latina) ou peak oil (também conhecido como pico de Hubbert ou cacumen Hubberti). São particularmente interessantes as newsletters da ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil), compiladas pelo Dr Colin Campbell e facilmente acessíveis na Internet.
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José Serafim
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
Caros Confrades
Eis aqui a transcrição do texto de Brennus Regan, que vale a pena ler:
Apocalypsis petrolearia
Cecidit, cecidit Babylon magna!
- Apocalypsis 18,2
Anno 1989º scripsit Joseph A. Tainter, nunc archaeologus in Universitate Studiorum Novi Mexici (in Civitatibus Foederatis Americae Septentrionalis), librum mirabilem insignemque: «Collapsus Societatum [vel Civitatum] Multiplicium» (The Collapse of Complex Societies, Cantabrigiae: Domus editoria Universitatis Studiorum Cantabrigiensis), qui causas collapsus civitatum et imperiorum magnorum describit. Ut breviter dicam, exponit causam ruinae primariam esse deficiens lucrum mercedesque operae, vel interpretia evanescentia decrescentesque reditûs (anglice: «declining marginal returns») civitatis totius, quae tum decoquit. Nemo enim faciet sumptum, si viderit non posse refici. Cum membra societatis alicujus ad id punctum perveniunt, ubi non jam operae pretium est se in statu societatis multiplicis sustinere, societatem simpliciorem reddunt. Tunc apparent mors longe lateque diffusa, bella, aliaque phaenomena quae multitudinem civium fortiter minuunt.
Tainter dicit omnes societates prorsus indigere energiae satis vilis pro vita sua. Saepissime esse servos aut subditos homines partes fontium istius energiae. Sed semper, quando energia illa non jam sufficit ad cottidianis sumptibus suppetendum, collabi societatem.
Civilizatio globalis, America duce, nunc tarde ad id punctum accedit. Exempla et indicia abundant: calamitates oecologicae iteratae, nimia multiplicatio numeri hominum (et praesertim hominum tertii mundi, qui dicitur), hominum generatio hodierna nimis provecta et in opibus naturalibus prodiga, circumjectorum contaminatio, et cetera. Praeterea, ubique in Civitatibus Foederatis aliisque nationibus excelsi cultus civilis incipiunt mercedes deminui et exaequari mercedibus mercennariorum orbis terrarum vilissimorum. Immo, hae nationes multitudines magnas talium mercennariorum plus plusque important ut faciant opera humilia atque mercedes deminui possint. Haec omnia sunt indicia redituum decrescentium deficientisque lucri necnon minuendarum mercedum operae laborisque.
Sed causa, quae omnino ruinam civilisationis globalis in spatio triginta ad quinquaginta annorum proximorum faciet, est imprimis defectio petrolei vilis.
Anno 1973º infirmatum est paululum imperium Americanum, copiis petrolei vilis deficientibus. Inopinata haec inopia in Civitatibus Foederatis Americae Septentrionalis a nationibus Arabicis intermissione subvectionis petrolei effecta est, quia Arabes, qui in Organizatione Civitatum Petroleum Exportantium (compendiariis litteris «OPEC» appellata) pluriumum valebant et valent, odio Americae propter ejus auxilium civitati Israelianae contraque Arabes Palaestinos latum, commovebantur et nos oleo suo intercludebant. Causa alia erat modus falsae rationis rei publicae gerendae. Sed causa maxima erat lenta exhaustio petrolei vilis e fontibus campisque petroleiferis Americanis ut non posset oleum ad indigentiam ejus explendam satis celeriter extrahi. Non erat exhaustio tota petrolei omnis, sed solummodo illius petrolei, quod ad vehicula et alios usus quaestuosos aptum et cujus haustus vilis est; porro, inopia exstitit praesertim quia ad summum punctum maximae velocitatis cottidianae haustûs effusionisque petrolei Americani anno 1970º perventum erat. Ex eo tempore saxa petroleifera fiunt «tenaciora», copia petrolei in fontibus Americanis continenter deminuitur atque oleum in dies difficilius lentiusque hauritur. Nunc remanet pars solummodo plus minus tertia pristinae hereditatis petrolei haustibilis in terra Civitatum Foederatarum.
In illis diebus incipiebat res oeconomica Americana paululum jacere: benzinum (vel gasolinum) non erat in multis stationibus autocinetorum usibus destinatis; haustra olearia nostra non hauriebant satis petroleum ad sescentas res ubique conficiendas; animi affectio civium facta est tristior tenebricosior. Multis malis oeconomicis affligebatur res publica Americana.
Pauci in illo tempore rationem causamve illius inopiae subitae sciebant. Sed tum regimina nationum occidentalium cito cum petroleiferarum regionum Arabibus aliisque pactiones fecerunt, quibus subvectio petrolei sufficiens instauraretur, atque oleum nuper inventum e mari Germanico coeperunt haurire, et periculum egestatis petroleariae deminutum est.
Ad tempus.
Post spatium temporis novem annorum, plus minusve octo annorum (id est, 2006-2020), succedet principium descrescentiae occasusque civilizationis hodiernae, quia pretia olei - i.e., illius quod dicitur «petroleum» (oleum e petris, e terra) - in orbe terrarum paulatim tam magna fient, ut solummodo pauci erunt satis divites ut possint id emere.
Nimis hominum numerus indigebit oleo pro machinis suis, pro instrumentis chemicalibusque faciendis proque tota oeconomia sua, et propterea erit generis humani expetitio olei major quam copia sumministratioque ejus. Illa major petitio faciet pretia olei emendi nimis cara, immo inaudite cara. Nobis non jam suppetet oleum vile.
Cultus civilis occidentalis, qui hodie cultus civilis - aut saltem oeconomia - totius mundi effectus est, dependet a petroleo abundanti vilique. Propter petroleum habet omnis quisque instar multarum decuriarum servorum in paene omnibus quae facimus: in vectura, in machinis omnis generis, in materia plastica facienda, in laetamine chemico (i.e., stercore ficticio) faciendo (et quod in «revolutione viride», quae dicitur, usurpatur), in electritate excitanda et, ut paucis dicam, in tota vita nostra recentiore. Oleum est quasi vitae sanguis civilizationis hodiernae.
Sine energia potest esse civilizatio nulla, sed civilizatio nostra requirit copias energiae multas. Circiter quadragenae centesimae (40%) illius energiae autem deducuntur diversis modis a petroleo. Petroleum autem genitum est aetate antiqua ante multos miliones annorum, et in paucis locis. Fontes petroleiferi sunt plerumque parvi; solum pauci sunt permagni, et paene omnes illorum permagnorum fontium in terris Muslimicis sunt, praesertim in regionibus circa sinum Persicum: in Arabia Saudiana, Cuvaitia, Iraquia (i.e., Mesopotamia), Irania (Persia), Arabum Phylarchiis Foederatis. Oleum hujus regionis et «leve» et «dulce» (i.e., perexigue sulpuratum) est, et vile ad hauriendum. Esto, sunt alii campi petroleiferi, ex.gr., in Russia, in Africa, in mari Germanico (vel mari Septentrionali), aut in civitatibus Alasca, Texia et Pennsilvania (in Civitatibus Foederatis) aut in Indonesia, sed non tam magni sunt quam in Oriente Medio, qui dicitur. Ceterum, oleum quod in aliis regionibus quaeritur variis ex causis saepe non tam vile, tam abundans, tam facile ad hauriendum aut tam bonum est quam oleum Orientis Medii.
Oleum hodie non jam generatur. Generatum est ex corporibus animalium praecipue maritimorum antiquorum minutissimorum (i.e., algae) plerumque aetatis Mesozoicae, i.e., ante 63 000 000 (sexagies ter miliones, vel 63E6) usque ad 230 000 000 (ducenties tricies miliones, vel 230E6) annorum. (Gasum eodem tempore ex animalibus minutulis magna ex parte terrestribus generatum est, sed invenitur profundius in terra.) Ingentes massae talium corporum oxygenio exclusae in «jus» vel liquamen commutatae sunt, et tractu temporis milionum annorum mergebatur id liquamen profundius in terram. Pressura calorque terrae superincubantis hoc liquamen coxerunt ut fieret petroleum aut gasum. Intra 2·3 usque ad 4·6 chiliometra (1·4 usque ad 2·8 milia anglica) altitudinis (i.e., in «fenestra olearia», quae dicitur) fit petroleum, profundius in terra gasum.
Technologiâ recente inventum est, et aestimatur in futuro inventum iri in terra, 1950 (mille nongentae quinquaginta) giga-cupae (= 1 950 000 000 000 vel 1·95E12 cuparum; anglice «1,950 gigabarrels», theodisce «1.950 Giga-Fässer») - id est, fere duo tera-cupae (= 2E12 cuparum) olei praestantis utilisque. (Praefixa numerica «chilio-», «mega-», «giga-», «tera-», et cetera sunt ea «Systematis Internationalis», quod dicitur.) Quorum copias saeculo sesquialtero praeterito hucusque nationes quaestuosa industria provectae, et praesertim nos Americani, circiter ad medietatem consumpsimus.
Sed hodierno die omnis natio oleo utitur pro iis, quae sunt ad vivendum regendumque necessaria, et illae res necessariae crescunt cum numero hominum magnopere excrescenti. Ominosum est et periculosum, civilizationem in toto orbe terrarum dependere de liquore illo, quippe qui non longius spatio decem annorum vilis et abundans remaneat.
Erat saeculo praeterito geologus petrolearius Americanus nomine M. King Hubbert. Invenit methodos mathematicas ad tempus maximi haustus petrolei praedicendum. Id tempus hodie «zenith Hubbertianum» aut «cacumen Hubberti» (anglice «Hubbert's peak», theodisce «Fördermaximum») nuncupatur. Accidit id punctum temporis saepissime cum oleum campi alicujus usque ad medietatem haustum sit aut antea, et pressus olei subterranei valde deminutus sit. Anno 1956º praedixit Hubbert summum «cacumen» haustus petrolei in Civitatibus Foederatis anno 1970º tactum iri. Permulti homines eum methodosque ejus verbis obtriverunt, et dixerunt eum ignarum scientiae petroleariae esse falsaque praedicere. Sed revera tactum est cacumen Americanum annis 1969-1971. Qua de causa important hodie Civitates Foederatae Americae Septentrionalis fere sexagenas centesimas (60%) olei sui, maximam partem e Canada, Arabia Saudiana, Mexico et Venetiola. Maximi momenti est etiam, quod America solummodo quinas centesimas (5%) hominum totius mundi habet, sed quotannis vicenas quinas centesimas (25%) olei in universo orbe terrarum hausti consumit. (Haec rapida voraxque consumptio pars magna est opum, quae Americae dant potestatem mundo dominandi.) Huc accedit, quod et Sina et India celeriter industriam machinalem inducunt et ideo copias olei continenter augescentes requirunt. Nationes illae duae faciunt quartam aut etiam tertiam partem totius generis humani. Eorum indigentia petrolei erit mox multo magis quam ea Civitatum Foederatarum. Et reliquus tertius mundus, qui dicitur, studet imitari et sequi exemplum eorum. Ergo expectandum est ut oleum magis magisque desperate expetatur.
Ut supra jam dictum est, periti rerum geologicarum petroleariarumque cacumen Hubberti pancosmicum credunt ante annum 2020um evenire - id est, circa annum 2012um, octo annorum adjectis aut deductis, aliis verbis expressum, intra annos 2006um et 2020um (ambobus annis annumeratis).
Aliquando in hoc spatio temporis 2006-2020 p.Chr.n., tale oleum parvi pretii tarde evanescet et mutabitur in liquorem magni pretii. Singula de hoc eventu possunt legi in multis paginis interretialibus (ex.gr., ...) et libris (ex.gr., Cacumen Hubberti: Instans olearia inopia orbis terrarum [anglice: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princetoniae, in Nova Caesarea: domus editoria universitatis studiorum Princetonianae, 2001] et Commutatio olei! Finis aetatis petroleariae et deflexus viae in cursum futuris parem [theodisce: Ölwechsel! Das Ende des Erdölzeitalters und die Weichenstellung für die Zukunft, Colin J. Campbell, Frauke Liesenborghs, Jörg Schindler und Dr. Werner Zittel, Domus editoria libellorum pugillarium theodisca [= dtv], 2002]).
Haec inopia efficiet, ut civilizatio hodierna terrestris post annum 2015um primum lente et tarde, tum rapidius, in spatio 20-30 annorum (i.e., ante a.D. 2050um) pereat et in statum «mediaevalem» (qui dicitur) redigatur - sed cum armis omnino recentioribus, immo nuclearibus. Magnus numerus hominum, quorum vitae nunc dependent de oleo, morietur. Sunt hodie plus quam 6 000 000 000 (sex biliones/miliarda [= 6E9]) hominum in orbe terrarum. Is numerus nimio pondere onerat telluris facultatem generis humani sine oleo sustinendi. Bella horribilia ergo sunt verisimiliter futura. Omnis haec descriptio eventuum futurorum non est visio aliqua «apocalyptica» aut commenticia. Est descriptio vera rei futurae nostrae.
Doctrix Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, in libro cui titulo De Morte Moriendoque (anglice, «On Death and Dying», Novi Eboraci, Macmillan, 1969) descripsit quattuor gradus moriendi: (1) negatio, (2) ira, (3) conata (cum medicis, Deo, fatisve) paciscendi, et (4) acceptio agnoscens. Eidem gradus in praesenti et futuro accidunt et accident: nunc (anno 2003 p.Chr.n.) sumus in gradu negationis (plerique negant ullam fore difficultatem); 2006-2015 erit probabiliter tempus irae furorisque (in alias partes politicas, in nationes exteras, in societates oleum suppetentes, et cetera); 2013-2020, gradus conatorum paciscendi legibus, vectigalibus, pactionibus internationalibus et diis e novis machinis; et 2020-2050, acceptionis agnoscentis, ubi agnoscemus nos omnino egere oleo et geremus bella ad id adipiscendum ut superstes sit imperium. Ergo anno 2006º incipiet aetas periculosissima.
Discrimen deducit originem suam primum a rebus omnino necessariis Civitatum Foederatarum Americae Septentrionalis. Nam in vilitate opum, praesertimque energiae, nititur salus reipublicae Americanae (aut, rectius, potestas imperii Americani). Huc accedit quod hoc imperium ex opibus solummodo suis non possit sustineri; necesse est ei, e multis aliis nationibus merces perigrinas, opes, vires importare. Accedit etiam quod Civitates Foederatae multos homines sustinent, cum indigenas tum perigrinos, qui non laborare volunt sed pecuniam suam ex aerario publico trahere praeferunt, atque insuper permultos (quibus annumerantur etiam quidam homines famosi) qui medicaminibus stupefactivis utuntur. Sunt etiam nationes, quarum vita e pecunia Americana pendet. Nec haec sunt omnia. Immo, America hodierna quin etiam de servitute hominum peregrinorum illegitimorum pendet! Ergo, libertate civitateque servorum illorum in posterum acquisitis et eorum servitute abolita, America non poterit sustineri.
Imperium Americanum, sicut olim imperium Romanum antiquum, fini suo appropinquat. Hoc totum corpus, fulcimentis suis desertum, labetur in ruinam, et in paucis decadibus, quia oleum vile cottidianis sumptibus non suppetet.
Et hoc portendit bellum aut, ut rectius dixerim, bella.
Ut summatim describam: Cacumen Hubberti pancosmicum est punctum temporis, post quod velocitas haustus petrolei non jam sufficiet ut mundi indigentia petrolei exstinguatur. Et ab eo tempore oeconomia orbis terrarum non jam crescere poterit. Sin autem oeconomia non crescere poterit, collabi compelletur ob deficientiam lucri mercedumque. Cum oeconomia collapsa erit, civilizatio quam sustinet morietur. Et paulatim grassabitur nova et perpetua Aetas Obscura.
Brennus Regan, Americanus
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
Caros confrades:
Peço desculpa pelas seguintes incorrecções:
1) na 1ª mensagem deve ler-se defectio petrolei e não defecto petrolei;
2) na 2ª mensagem, o autor do texto é Joseph Tainter e a versão latina é de Brennus Regan;
3) a 2ª mensagem foi repetida, inadvertidamente.
José Serafim
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
Caros confrades:
Peço desculpa + uma vez. A emenda foi pior que o soneto ...
O texto é efectivamente de Brian Regan, e é excelente. É muito claro e muito informativo. Descreve o problema com rigor.
Cumprimentos,
José Serafim
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
Ó Serafim não tens... um tradutor de Latim?.
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
Caro Zé,
Lá vens tu com "uma laracha"...lol lol
Note-se que, não obstante a especificidade do tema e a singulariedade como foi apresentado, a problemática tem grande interesse. Seria bom que ele fosse traduzido.
Zé, nestes tempos de "crise petrolífera" faz-me impressão (para não empregar palavras mais fortes) ver a posição de "alguns" especialistas.
Imagina que sendo o país altamente deficitário na produção de energia, existem graves polémicas à volta do aproveitamento das energias alternativas. Aponto-te alguns casos:
1. Atrasos na Barragem do Alqueva e na construção de outras hidroeléctricas, nomeadamente no norte do País.
2. Indefinição no aproveitamento da energia fotovoltaica. O melhor exemplo é a indefinição que grassa à volta da construção da "futura?" central fotovoltaica (uma das maiores do mundo...) da Amareleja.
3. Falta de aproveitamento da energia eólica. Dizem "alguns" que pode afectar o ecosistema. Há um caso em que se aponta o prejuízo que irá causar a determinadas aves. Será que não se arranja uma solução?
4. Não aproveitamento do hidrogéneo como fonte de energia.
5. Falta de aproveitamento do gás como energia motriz
6. Não aproveitamento do mar como fonte potencial de energia.
Nota- Outros exemplos poderia dar. Gostaria que outros confrades desenvolvessem o tema.
Um abraço
Artur
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróle
Caros confrades:
Acerca do gás natural:
" 65% of the world's gas supply ... is now in decline .. and you're not even sure [of] the rate at which the decline is accelerating... Gas can decline real fast "
Matt Simmons
(texto proveniente do site da ASPO - excertos de uma entrevista)
JSerafim
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróle
Caro José Serafim,
Por isso é que tem que ser bem aproveitado. O maior problema é a utilização indevida: muitas vezes em projectos que económicamente se tornam inviáveis.
Melhores cumprimentos
Artur Camisão Soares
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróle
Caro Artur Camisão Soares,
Em relação ao Hidrogénio (H2): embora possa ser um combustível útil, convém esclarecer que o Hidrogénio não é uma fonte de energia; é sim um transportador de energia (energy carrier). O H2 (muito raro na atmosfera) pode ser produzido por electrólise a partir da água (H2O), embora seja mais frequentemente produzido a partir do gás natural - de qualquer forma a sua produção requer sempre consumo de energia. Através da combustão do H2 produz-se H2O.
Melhores cumprimentos
José Serafim
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróleo
Caros Confrades:
Aqui vai mais um texto: um discurso muito interessante do Presidente Bush acerca da necessidade de obter energia de várias formas, diminuindo assim a assustadora dependência em relação ao petróleo e outros combustíveis fósseis. Este discurso prova que o governo americano está perfeitamente informado acerca da realidade do "peak oil" (peak of the production of oil) para a qual vários cientistas têm procurado alertar a Humanidade...
A anteceder este discurso está uma breve introdução preparada pela ASPO:
President Bush outlined US Energy Policy in an address to the Central Aluminum Company of Columbus, Ohio on 30 October 2003. He evidently sees the need for government intervention, tacitly accepting that the market has failed. It is noteworthy that he stresses moving to nuclear, coal and energy from wind, sun and biomass rather than securing the country’s needs by conquest. Many will be surprised at these words of sense.
President Bush: - To keep this economy moving, to sustain growth far in the future so people can work, we need a sound national energy policy. Every person who owns a home, every person who works on an assembly line, every person who drives a truck or runs a small business depends on reliable, affordable energy. That's what we depend upon. Our economic security and our national security requires secure sources of energy. We must become less reliant on foreign sources of energy.
I've come to Central Aluminum because this company and these employees rely upon reliable sources of energy. The company spends about 30 percent more on natural gas this year than it did last year. That's a cost, that makes it hard to expand the workforce when money goes into a 30 percent increase in your energy bill. By not having enough energy at home, our manufacturing sector is not doing as well as it should be. When the gas prices go up, the manufacturing sector hurts here in Ohio and around the country. Congress needs to pass a sound energy plan to help deal with the issues that confront this good company, Central Aluminum. First, we need more energy production close to home. We need to produce in our own country and we need to encourage exploration in our own hemisphere so we're less dependant from other parts of the world. Our nation and our hemisphere have got natural gas, the energy used right here in this plant. But this resource has been hampered by restrictions on exploration. Congress should allow reasonable exploration and responsible exploration to bring more natural gas to the market, which will lower the costs of the product. Congress should promote research into the next generation of nuclear plants and encourage investment in existing nuclear plants to expand a clean and unlimited source of energy.
Congress should encourage clean coal technology so that we can use our nation's most plentiful energy resource in an environmentally responsible way. In other words, the energy bill ought to encourage the use of resources close to home. When you increase supply, it takes pressure off price. We need a common sense, reasonable energy policy. I call upon Congress to pass that common sense, reasonable energy policy. Part of the energy bill I submitted -- and by the way, we submitted a package to Congress two years ago and are kind of grinding through all the details now -- but part of that package says America needs a better infrastructure, as well. We need better pipelines, gas terminals, and power lines so that the flow of energy is reliable.
You might remember what happened last summer. I certainly do. The rolling blackout affected this state of Ohio. That ought to be a signal that we need to modernize the electricity grid. The bill we're trying to get out of Congress understands that. The current grid is old and it's inefficient in places. Incredibly enough, federal law discourages new investment in the infrastructure. You got old laws on the books that need to be changed. We're heading into a new era. We've got to think new. We've got to be ready for the 21st century. By keeping investors from entering the electricity and the natural gas business, it stifles the capacity to provide more electricity and more natural gas. And remember, when you increase the supply of a product, it takes pressure off a price, which means people are more likely to be able to find a job.
We need to encourage new investment in a modern electric grid ending old rules. We need mandatory, not voluntary, reliability standards for our power companies. We now need to make sure that the placement of new power lines, which often times get bogged down because local authorities block transmission lines, that the federal energy officials have the authority to site new power lines. That's what we need to do. We need to modernize our grid so the lights don't go off in people's homes, so that business owners are able to plan for a stable and expanding work force. We need to wake up and realize we're heading into the 21st century, and we need a 21st century energy policy, It is what we need to do.
And a 21st century energy policy says this country must develop and deploy the latest technology to provide a new generation, a different kind of energy, new sources of energy, cleaner and more efficient energy sources. A lot of companies in Columbus are doing some ground breaking research on what I'm talking about. For example, we ought to expand tax credits for renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. We ought to see if we can't use technology to diversify our energy supply in a smart way. Congress should fund research in a new hydrogen fuel technology that I called for in my State of the Union. We ought to make sure that we use ethanol from corn and biodiesel made from soy beans. It seems to me to make sense that we ought to use our technology and know how to grow our way out of dependence on foreign sources of energy.
In other words, we need a comprehensive plan. We need to encourage production, and we need to encourage conservation. We need to use the energy resources we've got at hand in an environmentally friendly way. And we need to advance new kinds of energy. But we've got to get after it. And that's my message to the United States Congress -- resolve your differences. Understand that if you're interested in people finding a job, we need an energy policy. That's why I'm here. I want these people working. I want their friends to be able to find jobs. Get the bill done.
(Reference furnished by Kjell Aleklett)
Da ASPO NEWSLETTER No 36 – DECEMBER 2003: 282. US Energy Policy
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróle
Caro José Serafim,
Não fui, de facto, preciso. Agradeço os seus esclarecimentos.
Renovados cumprimentos
Artur Camisão Soares
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RE: Efeitos genealógicos do esgotamento do petróle
Caros Confrades:
Não quero insistir demasiado neste tema aparentemente pouco genealógico mas muito actual.
Apenas mais um texto que me parece interessante e que contribui para justificar o título deste tópico:
“(...) World Grain production has not increased sufficiently to support per capita consumption, which peaked in 1985. According to Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute, speaking at the Rimini Conference (see Item 269), an increase in average temperature of one degree causes a ten percent fall in crop yields. Furthermore the aquifers of many of the world’s grain growing areas are being depleted. They are mainly fossil aquifers not being replenished fast enough to match extraction. Petroleum is commonly used to fuel the pumps needed for irrigation. Furthermore, the new genetically engineered crop types have high yields but reduced root systems, such that they have a voracious appetite for both water and synthetic nutrients made from petroleum. It has also recently been announced that it is near impossible to reduce the use of one of the banned pesticide chemicals held to be responsible for the hole in the ozone layer.
Accordingly, it begins to appear that the peak and decline of oil may be matched by a peak and decline of food production. In this connection it is worth recalling that from the time of Christ until around 1750, peasant farmers employing sustainable agricultural methods only just succeeded in supporting a population in the 300 to 500 million range. The entry of coal-based energy was accompanied by a rise in the population to about one billion by 1850 when the first oil wells were drilled. A six-fold increase in population followed rising in parallel with the growing oil production. This brief explosion of energy and people was out of all context with what had preceded it. Logic proclaims that the population will also have to decline in parallel with depleting oil and gas. The peak and decline of per capita grain production may herald this new direction. (...) (Reference furnished by Jean Laherrère)
(ASPO Newsletter No 36 – December 2003: 293. Not only oil depletes)
Não quero deixar de agradecer a valiosa participação neste debate dos confrades Artur Camisão Soares e Zamot.
Termino citando o vice-presidente Dick Cheney: “producing oil is obviously a self-depleting activity” (citado no site da ASPO).
Renovados cumprimentos do
José Serafim
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